Horses travelling a long distance to a racecourse was a profitable pointer to winner finding before the dawn of Betfair. I am not so sure it still applies now you can back a horse to lose.

Today we have a horse making a 500+  mile trip from Leek to Ayr.

Kilkenny Kim 15.50 Ayr.

The Mare last ran over 2m 4f  at Ayr fading at the finishing end of the race to be beaten 5 lengths into third place. She was backed that day to end up the 7/4 fav. 
Today she drops down to 2 miles .
Trainer and Jockey stats (at Ayr) do not read good.....0-5 and 0-8.

The price at the time of writing this is 4.1 on Betfair.

The betting close to the off should give some indication of what is expected.

Back or Lay?

I feel at some point in the race she will trade at less than 4.1 so I am leaning to a back and lay in running. 


Took 4.5 and Traded out at 2.6 for a small profit.